Revenue Calculator
Estimate your potential Steam revenue using review-based calculations or wishlist projections. Plan your budget and set realistic expectations.
What is the Revenue Calculator?
The Revenue Calculator helps indie developers estimate potential revenue for their Steam games using two proven methodologies: the Boxleiter method (based on review counts) and wishlist projections (based on pre-launch wishlist numbers).
Having realistic revenue expectations is crucial for indie developers. This tool helps you make informed decisions about budgeting, team size, development scope, and marketing spend based on data-driven projections.
Why Revenue Estimation Matters
Understanding potential revenue helps indie developers in several critical ways:
Budget Planning: Know whether your projected revenue will cover development costs and living expenses.
Scope Decisions: Determine if your game's potential earnings justify its planned scope and development time.
Marketing Budget: Calculate how much you can afford to spend on marketing while remaining profitable.
Risk Assessment: Understand the financial risk before committing to full-time development.
Investor Discussions: Provide data-backed projections when seeking funding or partnerships.
Pricing Strategy: Model different price points to find the optimal balance between revenue and sales volume.
The Revenue Calculator makes these projections accessible using industry-standard methodologies rather than pure guesswork.
Two Calculation Methods
The tool offers two different approaches to revenue estimation, each useful in different scenarios:
Boxleiter Method (Review-Based)
Named after analysis by Steam data researcher Boxleiter, this method estimates total owners based on review count.
The general ratio is approximately 1 review for every 50 owners, though this varies by game.
This method is useful for analyzing existing games or estimating final numbers based on early review patterns.
More accurate for released games with established review counts.
Wishlist Projections (Pre-Launch)
Estimates revenue based on wishlist counts before your game launches.
Uses conversion rate percentages to project how many wishlists will convert to sales.
Essential for pre-launch planning and marketing budget decisions.
Accuracy depends on your marketing quality and game-market fit.
How to Use the Boxleiter Method
This method works best for analyzing existing games or projecting based on early review traction:
1. Enter Review Count
Input the number of Steam reviews the game has (or your target review count)
For existing games, find this on the Steam store page
For projections, estimate based on similar games or early review velocity
2. Set Base Price
Enter the full price of the game in dollars
This is the non-discounted price
Used as the baseline for all revenue calculations
3. Adjust Parameters
Average Discount: What percentage discount do you typically offer? (e.g., 20% off during sales)
Regional Pricing: Percentage adjustment for international pricing (often 10-30% lower on average)
Refund Rate: Percentage of sales that get refunded (typically 5-10%)
These factors significantly impact final revenue, so adjust them based on your strategy and genre norms
4. Review Calculation
The calculator shows estimated owner count based on the review-to-owner ratio
Displays gross revenue before Steam's cut
Shows your net revenue after Steam's 30% fee, discounts, refunds, and regional pricing
Includes VAT considerations where applicable
How to Use Wishlist Projections
This method is essential for pre-launch revenue planning:
1. Enter Wishlist Count
Input your current wishlist count (or target wishlist count)
Find your actual count in Steamworks analytics
For planning, estimate based on your marketing reach and similar games
2. Set Base Price
Enter your planned launch price
Consider your game's scope, quality, and comparable titles
3. Adjust Conversion Rate
This is the most critical variable - what percentage of wishlists will convert to purchases?
Use the slider to model different scenarios
The calculator shows where your conversion rate falls on the performance percentile curve:
- 0-25%: Below average performance
- 25-50%: Average performance
- 50-75%: Good performance
- 75-100%: Excellent performance
Factors affecting conversion: marketing quality, genre appeal, pricing, competition, review quality
4. Set Additional Parameters
Same as Boxleiter method: discounts, regional pricing, refund rate
Launch discount: Many games offer launch-week discounts (10-20%)
Plan conservatively - it's better to exceed low expectations than miss high ones
Understanding Conversion Rates
Wishlist-to-sale conversion rates vary widely based on many factors. Here's what to expect:
Typical Conversion Ranges
Poor Performance (5-15%): Weak marketing, poor reviews, or mismatched expectations
Average Performance (15-25%): Decent game with solid but not exceptional marketing
Good Performance (25-40%): Strong game with effective marketing and good initial reviews
Excellent Performance (40%+): Exceptional game with viral marketing and outstanding reviews
Factors That Increase Conversion
Strong initial reviews (above 85% positive)
Active community engagement and demo availability
Effective launch-week marketing push
Realistic price for the scope and quality
Good timing (avoiding major competition)
Clear, compelling store page and trailer
Building anticipation through devlogs and updates
Factors That Decrease Conversion
Mixed or negative initial reviews
Price too high for perceived value
Lack of launch marketing
Technical issues at launch
Misleading marketing creating wrong expectations
Competing with major releases
Stale wishlist (added long ago, forgotten)
Revenue Factors Explained
The calculator accounts for several factors that reduce your gross revenue:
- •Steam's Cut (30%): Steam takes 30% of gross revenue (reduced to 25% after $10M, 20% after $50M)
- •Discounts: Sales events typically discount games 10-50% - factor in your average discount
- •Regional Pricing: International markets often pay less due to regional pricing adjustments
- •Refunds: Players can refund within 2 hours of play and 14 days of purchase - typical rate is 5-10%
- •VAT/Taxes: Value-added tax in some regions is deducted from your revenue
- •Payment Processing: Small fees for payment processing (usually included in Steam's cut)
Using Projections for Planning
Revenue estimates help you make informed development and marketing decisions:
Budget Planning
Calculate your total development costs (time, software, contractors, etc.)
Compare to projected revenue to see if the project is financially viable
Include a safety margin - assume lower performance to be conservative
Consider multiple revenue sources (Steam, other platforms, DLC) for complete picture
Marketing Budget
A common rule: spend 10-30% of projected revenue on marketing
Higher spending makes sense if it significantly improves conversion rate
Track ROI for different marketing channels
Front-load marketing budget for launch window (first 2-4 weeks)
Scope and Timeline
If projections don't cover costs, consider reducing scope or development time
Alternatively, invest more in marketing to increase wishlist and conversion
Some developers choose to launch smaller, profitable games to fund larger projects
Long development increases costs - faster launches can be more profitable
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Developers often make these errors when estimating revenue:
- •Overestimating conversion rate: Many developers assume 40%+ conversion but actually achieve 15-20%
- •Ignoring refunds and discounts: These significantly impact final revenue
- •Forgetting Steam's 30% cut: Your take-home is much less than gross sales
- •Only calculating launch revenue: Plan for ongoing sales, but know that most revenue comes early
- •Underestimating development costs: Include your time at a reasonable hourly rate
- •Being overly optimistic: Plan for average or below-average performance, not best-case scenarios
Comparing to Similar Games
Validate your projections by researching comparable games:
Use the Browse Games tool to find similar titles and note their review counts
Apply the Boxleiter method to estimate their owner counts and revenue
Check SteamDB or similar services for additional data on game performance
Look for games with similar scope, quality, genre, and marketing approach
Be realistic about where your game falls in quality and appeal compared to these comparisons
Long-Term Revenue
This calculator focuses on initial launch revenue, but consider ongoing sales:
Most games earn 60-80% of their total revenue in the first month
Sales events (Steam seasonal sales) create smaller revenue spikes throughout the year
Price drops over time can extend the tail of sales
DLC and expansions can significantly boost lifetime revenue
Some games become sleeper hits, but don't count on this - plan for typical patterns
No Credit Cost
The Revenue Calculator is completely free to use with no credit cost. Model as many scenarios as you need to make informed decisions about your game's financial viability.
Ready to try Revenue Calculator?
Start using this tool to improve your game's marketing and reach more players on Steam.
Go to Revenue Calculator